ENGLISH DEYEA NEWS

By WILLIAM BOOT | The consequences of political strife in Thailand are rippling through the entire region with international travel stalled, trade disrupted and investment curtailed.

The anti-government protests at Bangkok’s two major airports have devastated the country's tourist industry. The long-term ramifications—fewer tourists and decreased foreign business investment—will squeeze an already fragile economy.

Finance Minister Suchart Thada-Thamrongvech said on Monday political turmoil had shattered business confidence and economic growth in 2009 could be between zero and 2 percent.

In the two weeks since the militant protestors stormed and occupied Bangkok’s main international airport, political and financial risk analysts have predicted a sharp downturn in Thailand’s economic fortunes.

The Bank of Thailand said the tourist sector could lose 140 billion baht (US $4 billion) in revenue next year—1.5 percent of GDP—if political turmoil continues between the two political factions locked in a struggle for control of the country.

Clearly, the economic prospects for Thailand are bleak. Deputy Prime Minister Olarn Chaipravat said the economy could even contract next year and 1.2 million people could lose their jobs.

The recent images of chaos in Bangkok have been seen on Web sites and on televisions around the world, severely damaging Thailand’s reputation as a peaceful and hospitable tourist destination.

Olarn warned that tourist arrivals in 2009 could be half the 13.5 million now expected for 2008. Although the Thai government has in recent times gone out of its way to attract “five-star” tourists, the majority of visitors to the country are still backpackers who use Thailand as a base from which to explore the region.

The disbandment of Thailand's government on Wednesday—the prime minister has been barred from politics for five years by a court ruling—has even prompted fears of a slide into civil war.

The government was found guilty of electoral fraud the by Constitutional Court which subsequently ordered its dissolution. The ruling has renewed fears of violence while many believe the country is now without a functioning government, partly reflected
in the failure of the police and military establishments to prevent the occupation of Government House and two key airports by thousands of protesters seeking the government’s downfall.

Thailand’s political disruptions have now affected all of the ten Asean countries—forcing postponement until March of the planned December 12-17 leaders’ summit. The decision comes after several Asean members publicly raised their concerns about Thailand’s suitability to play host to the summit.

"The Cabinet agreed to cancel the Asean meeting until March because of the political turbulence in Thailand," said government spokesman Nattawut Sai-Kua.

The Asean summit had been expected to formally ratify two important regional economic packages, now sidelined—free trade agreements with key players India and China.


Impact on Burma

As Thailand reels from the combined effects of the global financial crisis and its domestic strife, competition for jobs is expected to sharpen and Burmese workers could find themselves out of work, human rights and aid agencies are warning.

Tens of thousands of migrant workers could soon be on their way home. Burma, whose regime depends on tourism as a major source of income, also can expect fewer visitors, a situation which could have an adverse effect on the junta’s ability to finance itself.
Aid agencies estimate that in excess of 1 million Burmese workers, legal and illegal, are employed in Thailand, the majority found in occupations labor rights activists describe as the ''three Ds''—dirty, dangerous and difficult.

Burmese Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein, however, said that the country’s agricultural sector could easily provide jobs for Burmese workers forced out of their jobs overseas.

Speaking at a meeting with ministers, government officials and businessmen in the capital Naypyitaw on Monday and reported by state-run newspapers a day later, the prime minister’s comments were the first on how the global crisis might affect Burma.

According to the Thai-Burmese border-based rights groups, thousands of Burmese migrant workers in Thailand are returning home after losing their jobs or being put on half pay as factories cut production and labor forces because of the economic slowdown.