ENGLISH DEYEA NEWS

By WAI MOE | Burma’s Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein said that the country would not be affected by the global financial meltdown and insisted that there are plenty of jobs available for millions of Burmese who are currently working abroad if they are forced to return home, according to the state-run Myanma Alin newspaper on Tuesday.

The newspaper reported that Thein Sein, speaking at a meeting in the capital Naypyidaw to discuss development of the country’s agricultural sector, said that the global financial crisis was “irrelevant” to Burma’s economy.

Addressing concerns that the economic slowdown would result in massive unemployment among the estimated two million Burmese working outside the country, he said that there are plenty of opportunities awaiting them in Burma if they return.

Agricultural industries alone could absorb millions of workers, he said. He pointed to labor shortages in the country’s palm-oil industry, which currently employs just 17,974 workers, and on rubber plantations, which have a workforce of around two million, as areas where many returnees could find employment.

He added that there was also a demand for workers in the forestry and fishery industries. He said that the country had the capacity to develop its economy on its own, despite the economic crisis and sanctions imposed by Western countries.

Despite his reassurances, however, business people in Burma say that decreasing demand for beans, pulses and rice from major trading partners, particularly China, India and Thailand, has hit the agricultural sector hard.

Even more significant, in terms of export earnings, is the energy sector. Last year, Thailand alone paid the Burmese junta at least US $2.5 million for natural gas. Since October, however, the price of oil and natural gas has fallen by more than half, as demand shrinks in response to expectations of a prolonged recession.

According to a report on Burma published by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) in November, the country’s export revenues will suffer from the impact of the global slowdown in the year ahead.

“[T]he price of many of [Burma’s] commodity exports is likely to weaken in 2009, as we expect global food prices to fall sharply before picking up in 2010,” according to the EIU report.

A Rangoon-based economist, who spoke on condition of anonymity, rejected the regime’s claims that Burma was insulated from the effects of the global downturn. He said that the country was not immune to the recession because its neighbors would be less likely to import from Burma until their own economies improved.

Aung Thu Nyein, a Burmese economic analyst based in Thailand, said that the loss of jobs by migrant workers would also have a severe impact on Burma’s economy. Many who work abroad remit money to their families back in Burma, he said, and the loss of their income would definitely impact on the domestic economy.

He added that Burma’s economy is fragile at the best of times, and that even a minor disruption could have a major impact.

According to the EIU, Burma’s total international reserves in 2008 were US $2.262 billion. But many are skeptical about how the ruling junta is using this money, as most Burmese survive on less than US $1.20 a day.